Australia Aged Care Market 2026 | Industry Size, Share, Growth Trends & Forecast Report by 2034

Market Overview

The Australia aged care market is experiencing sustained growth driven by the rapid expansion of the ageing population, the most sweeping legislative reform in nearly three decades, increasing demand for personalized home-based care, government investment in workforce development, and accelerating technology adoption improving care delivery across residential, community, and home settings nationwide. The market size increased from USD 34.4 Billion in 2025 to USD 36.6 Billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 61.3 Billion by 2034, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.43% from 2026 to 2034.

The Aged Care Act 2024 — commencing November 1, 2025 and replacing laws governing the sector since 1997 — is the most structurally transformative event in Australian aged care history, establishing legally enforceable rights for older people for the first time and launching the Support at Home program replacing Home Care Packages. By December 2025, the Support at Home waiting list had reached over 130,000 people — up 25,000 in just two months — while the government committed to delivering 63,000 additional places by June 2026, reflecting the extraordinary demand surge the new framework is catalysing across the Australia aged care market share through the forecast period.

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Australia Aged Care Market Summary

• By 2026, more than 22% of Australians will be aged over 65 — up from 16% in 2020 and more than double the 8.3% recorded in the 1970s — creating an accelerating structural demand base that will expand the old-age dependency ratio significantly by 2063.
• The Support at Home program — launched November 1, 2025 — established eight classification levels with funding up to AUD 78,106 per year and a 10% care management cap, replacing the previous Home Care Package framework with a more individually tailored and rights-based home care model.
• The Support at Home waiting list reached over 130,000 people by December 2025 — up 25,000 in just two months — with the government committing to delivering 63,000 additional places by June 2026 as structural demand for home-based care significantly outpaces current supply capacity.
• The Australian Government will fully fund personal care services under Support at Home from October 1, 2026 — a landmark policy milestone further reducing financial barriers to home-based aged care access for older Australians across all income levels.
• Home-based and community-centered care is the fastest-growing service segment, underpinned by strong consumer preference for ageing in place, government investment in flexible care infrastructure, and the Support at Home program's person-centered funding model replacing the previous package-based approach.
• New worker screening processes commencing in mid-2026 under the Aged Care Act 2024 are strengthening workforce accountability, while the first Nations Aged Care Commissioner's 2025 interim report recommendations are being implemented to improve culturally safe care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians.

PORTER'S FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS – AUSTRALIA AGED CARE MARKET

• Competitive Rivalry: Moderate to High. Regis Healthcare, Estia Health, Allity, Baptistcare, and Bolton Clarke compete for residential and home care contracts, intensifying as Support at Home expands the home care market and reduces residential care demand growth.
• Supplier Power (Workforce): High. Australia's aged care workforce shortage — with sector vacancy rates elevated and trained aged care workers scarce — gives qualified nurses, personal care workers, and allied health professionals significant wage leverage over providers.
• Buyer Power (Consumers and Government): High. Legally enforceable rights under the Aged Care Act 2024, ACQSC's strengthened Quality Standards, and My Aged Care's transparent Star Ratings system empower consumers to choose and switch providers based on verified quality and cost information.
• Threat of Substitutes: Low. No meaningful substitutes exist for professional aged care; however, informal family caregiving remains a partial substitute in lower-acuity situations and in culturally diverse communities where family-based care is preferred over formal service engagement.
• Threat of New Entrants: Moderate. New Aged Care Act registration requirements, strengthened Quality Standards, and worker screening processes from mid-2026 raise compliance barriers; however, the home care segment offers accessible entry for new community-based service providers.

MARKET GROWTH DRIVERS

Rising Aging Population and Structural Demand Acceleration

Australia's rapidly ageing population is the most powerful structural driver of the aged care market. With more than 22% of Australians projected to be aged over 65 by 2026 — and the old-age dependency ratio expected to reach approximately two older people for every five working-age individuals by 2063 — the demand for aged care services is structurally embedded, predictable, and growing. The Support at Home waiting list surging to over 130,000 people by December 2025 reflects the acute gap between current supply capacity and surging demand. Government investment in 63,000 additional Support at Home places by June 2026 and the commitment to fully fund personal care services from October 2026 are directly responding to this demographic imperative.

Landmark Aged Care Act 2024 and Support at Home Reform

The commencement of the Aged Care Act 2024 on November 1, 2025 — replacing aged care legislation in place since 1997 — represents the most significant structural transformation in Australian aged care history. The new Act establishes a legally enforceable Statement of Rights for older people, implements strengthened Quality Standards across residential and home care, and launches the Support at Home program with eight classification levels and funding up to AUD 78,106 per year per recipient. New provider registration requirements, expanded whistleblower protections for aged care workers, culturally safe care frameworks for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, and mandatory rights-based practice across all registered providers are collectively reshaping the competitive environment and raising compliance standards across all service types.

Movement Toward Home-Based and Community-Centered Care

One of the main forces transforming Australia's aged care market is the increasing preference among older Australians for ageing in place rather than transitioning to residential facilities. This cultural and practical shift is compelling service providers to develop comprehensive home-based care programs spanning personal care, meal provision, mobility aids, nursing visits, and allied health services tailored to individual health status and lifestyle preferences. Day programs and community centers are expanding allied health services and social engagement programs for older Australians remaining at home. Government infrastructure investment in home care and community support programs — particularly in suburban and provincial areas — is accelerating this structural transition, with the Support at Home program's person-centered funding model explicitly designed to maximize older Australians' ability to live at home longer with appropriate, flexible support.

Technology Innovation and Workforce Development Investment

Technology is becoming a critical enabler of growth and quality improvement across Australia's aged care sector. Remote monitoring systems, electronic medication management, telehealth services, smart home safety technologies including fall detection sensors, voice assistants, and automated lighting are improving both care outcomes and older Australians' independence and safety at home. In August 2024, the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care expanded two additional contracts with Accenture to deliver IT capabilities including workforce application services on the Salesforce MuleSoft platform — directly digitizing the sector's workforce management and compliance infrastructure. Simultaneously, investment in vocational education, culturally sensitive care training, dementia care specialization, and digital competency programs for aged care workers is addressing the persistent workforce shortage that remains the sector's most significant structural constrain

AUSTRALIA AGED CARE MARKET SEGMENTATION

Services Insights:

• Home Healthcare
• Non-Medical Health Care
• Institutional Care
• Hospital Based Care
• Others

Application Insights:

• Medical Care
• Rehabilitation
• Assistance

Regional Insights:

• Australia Capital Territory & New South Wales
• Victoria & Tasmania
• Queensland
• Northern Territory & Southern Australia
• Western Australia

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

The Australia aged care market features a competitive landscape of large listed residential care operators, not-for-profit faith-based and community providers, and growing home care service specialists. Competitive differentiation is driven by ACQSC Star Ratings, quality compliance records, culturally inclusive service capabilities, home care technology platforms, and the speed and flexibility of response to the Aged Care Act 2024's new rights-based compliance framework. The Support at Home program's shift toward individual funding allocation — rather than packaged service bundles — is progressively increasing consumer choice and competitive pressure on providers to demonstrate genuine person-centered care quality.

Key players include:

• Regis Healthcare Limited
• Estia Health Limited
• Bolton Clarke (RSL Care and RDNS)
• Allity Aged Care
• Baptistcare
• BaptistCare NSW & ACT
• Bupa Aged Care Australia
• Calvary Health Care
• Hall & Prior Health & Aged Services
• Opal HealthCare
• Japara Healthcare (now Estia Health)
• Arcare Aged Care

Regis Healthcare and Estia Health — two of Australia's largest listed residential aged care operators — are navigating the Aged Care Act 2024's new compliance environment, with both companies investing in quality improvement programs, clinical governance upgrades, and staff training initiatives to meet the Act's strengthened Quality Standards and rights-based care delivery requirements. Bolton Clarke — Australia's largest not-for-profit provider of in-home care — is positioned to benefit significantly from the Support at Home program's expansion, given its scale and established home care delivery infrastructure across all Australian states. Bupa Aged Care and Opal HealthCare are among the operators engaging most actively with the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission's proactive approach to the new Act's implementation, with ACQSC acknowledging providers face genuine challenges in meeting all requirements simultaneously while maintaining care quality standards.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

• Australia Capital Territory & New South Wales: NSW is Australia's largest aged care market by population and service volume, hosting the country's highest concentration of residential aged care facilities, home care providers, and dementia-specific services. Sydney's eastern suburbs, inner west, and northern beaches represent high-value premium aged care market segments, while regional NSW faces the most acute workforce shortages and infrastructure access gaps that government regional support programs are targeting for improvement.
• Victoria & Tasmania: Victoria is Australia's second-largest aged care market, anchored by Melbourne's large elderly population and concentration of major not-for-profit aged care providers including Baptistcare and Calvary. Victoria's culturally diverse population — with significant Italian, Greek, Chinese, and Vietnamese elderly communities — is driving growing demand for culturally safe care services with bilingual staff and culturally appropriate meal and social programs. Tasmania's compact geography and tight-knit communities are creating demand for innovative mobile and telehealth-integrated community care models.
• Queensland: Queensland is a high-growth aged care market driven by the state's large retiree migration inflows — particularly into Southeast Queensland's Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, and Moreton Bay corridors — and a rapidly growing elderly population across Brisbane's expanding outer suburbs. The 2032 Brisbane Olympics infrastructure program is catalysing investment in urban amenity that is simultaneously attracting retirees and supporting age-friendly community development across Southeast Queensland's growth corridors.
• Northern Territory & Southern Australia: The Northern Territory presents unique aged care challenges, with remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities requiring culturally appropriate, community-based service delivery models supported by specialist government funding and the First Nations Aged Care Commissioner's recommendations being implemented through 2026. South Australia's ageing population and Adelaide's established retirement sector support steady residential and home care demand, with the state recognized as a pilot environment for technology-enabled aged care delivery models.
• Western Australia: Western Australia's aged care market reflects the state's dual character — affluent Perth metropolitan consumers demanding premium lifestyle-oriented residential and home care, and dispersed regional and remote communities in the Pilbara, Kimberley, and Goldfields requiring outreach-based service delivery. Government investment in regional aged care infrastructure and telehealth connectivity in WA's remote communities is progressively reducing the care quality disparity between metropolitan and rural aged care service recipients.

RECENT INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS

• July 2026: The Department of Health, Disability and Ageing released the 2024-25 Financial Report on the Australian Aged Care Sector in late June 2026, providing comprehensive headline financial data on provider revenues, costs, and operating outcomes under the transitional period of the new Aged Care Act — the first financial year report incorporating the early implementation effects of the Aged Care Act 2024 reform framework across both residential and home care segments.
• June 2026: A new worker screening process for aged care workers commenced in mid-2026 under the Aged Care Act 2024, strengthening safeguards around who can work in the sector and forming part of the broader workforce accountability reforms. Simultaneously, care providers were required to demonstrate digital capability, pricing transparency, and genuine rights-based practice as the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission escalated its proactive compliance engagement program across registered providers.
• May 2026: The Department of Health, Disability and Ageing hosted a Connect with Community webinar on May 14, 2026, responding to questions raised about the new Aged Care Act's implementation — including the Residential Care Service List, the Higher Everyday Living Fee structure, and provider obligations for outdoor access and activity programming — as providers worked through the practical implementation challenges of the most comprehensive aged care reform in 28 years.
• April 2026: The Australian Government confirmed it will fully fund personal care services under Support at Home from October 1, 2026 — a landmark policy announcement further reducing financial barriers to home-based care access. A separate webinar addressed provider and consumer questions about outdoor access rights in residential aged care, reflecting the Aged Care Act 2024's enforceable Statement of Rights extending to lifestyle, social participation, and physical environment quality.
• January 2026: The Support at Home program's first full quarter of operation confirmed significant demand pressures, with the waiting list exceeding 130,000 people by December 2025 — up 25,000 in just two months. The government confirmed delivery of 63,000 additional Support at Home places by June 2026 to address the acute gap between demand and supply capacity for higher-level home support packages across metropolitan and regional Australia.
• November 2025: The Aged Care Act 2024 commenced on November 1, 2025 — the most sweeping overhaul of Australia's aged care system in nearly three decades — replacing laws governing the sector since 1997, establishing legally enforceable rights for older people for the first time, launching the Support at Home program replacing Home Care Packages, and implementing strengthened Quality Standards across all registered providers. Automatic transition of existing HCP recipients to Support at Home occurred on November 1, with existing unspent HCP funds carried over into new budgets under the "no worse off" protection principle.

Key Aspects Required for the Australia Aged Care Market

• Market Performance: USD 34.4 Billion (2025) → USD 36.6 Billion (2026) → USD 61.3 Billion (2034), driven by 22%+ of Australians aged over 65 by 2026, Support at Home waiting list exceeding 130,000 by December 2025, and government commitment to full personal care funding from October 2026.
• Market Outlook: A 6.43% CAGR through 2034 reflects sustained above-average growth anchored by accelerating demographic demand, the Aged Care Act 2024's market-restructuring reforms, Support at Home's expansion to 63,000+ additional places by June 2026, and the government's commitment to full personal care funding from October 1, 2026.
• Growth Drivers: Aged Care Act 2024 commencing November 2025 — the most significant reform in 28 years; Support at Home program launching with AUD 78,106 maximum annual funding and eight classification levels; government fully funding personal care from October 2026; mid-2026 worker screening strengthening workforce accountability and sector trust.
• Competitive Landscape: Large listed residential operators (Regis Healthcare, Estia Health, Opal HealthCare) competing with not-for-profit providers (Bolton Clarke, Baptistcare, Calvary) and government-supported community care services; Bolton Clarke positioned as the largest beneficiary of Support at Home expansion given its established home care scale.
• Value Chain Analysis: From aged care assessment (ACAT/RAS under My Aged Care) through provider registration and ACQSC Quality Standards compliance, Support at Home budget allocation and service coordination, residential care facility operations, telehealth and remote monitoring technology integration, to ACQSC inspection, Star Rating publication, and Complaints Commissioner oversight.
• Industry Trends: Support at Home replacing HCP as Australia's primary home care funding model; legally enforceable Statement of Rights reshaping care quality expectations and provider accountability; First Nations Aged Care Commissioner's recommendations driving culturally safe care investment; mid-2026 worker screening strengthening accountability; premium private aged care growing as high-income Australians seek lifestyle-oriented residential alternatives.
• Strategic Recommendations: Invest in Support at Home service delivery infrastructure to capture the 130,000+ waitlist demand and 63,000 additional places by June 2026; develop Aged Care Act 2024-compliant rights-based care practice frameworks to build ACQSC Star Rating positioning; build culturally inclusive care capabilities — bilingual staff, culturally appropriate programs — targeting Victoria and NSW's diverse elderly communities; deploy telehealth and remote monitoring technology to extend quality home care into regional and remote areas with limited face-to-face access.

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