Venezuela Power Market to Reach 44.35 GW by 2030, Driven by Hydropower Rehabilitation and Solar Expansion | Mordor Intelligence

The Venezuela power market is expected to rise from 37.46 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 to 44.35 GW by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 3.43%. On the other, the sector continues to face fuel shortages, hyperinflation, and sanctions that limit foreign investment. The rehabilitation of the 10,200 MW Guri hydro complex, expansion of solar projects in the Andes, and dual-fuel retrofits of thermal plants are expected to anchor supply additions in the coming years.

Venezuela Power Market Growth Trends

Hydropower Rehabilitation

Hydropower remains the backbone of Venezuela’s electricity generation. However, deferred maintenance and drought conditions have reduced capacity factors below 40%. Refurbishment of the Guri Dam could restore up to 1,000 MW of lost capacity, helping to close the recurring generation deficit of 1,600–1,800 MW during peak demand.

Solar Expansion in the Andes

Government targets unveiled at COP29 include sourcing 30% of electricity from solar photovoltaics. A roadmap for 3,000 MW of solar installations in Mérida, Táchira, and Trujillo states highlights the shift toward renewable diversification. Early projects, such as the 50 MW solar park in Mara (Zulia) and the 1.5 MW facility in El Vigía (Mérida), signal the beginning of this transition.

Dual-Fuel Thermal Retrofits

Thermal plants such as Termozulia and Ramón Laguna operate at only a fraction of their capacity due to fuel supply constraints. Dual-fuel retrofits, allowing plants to switch between gas and diesel, are expected to improve reliability. International contractors like Siemens Energy and Wärtsilä are engaged in these upgrades despite cost inflation and licensing hurdles.

Micro-Grids and Distributed Solar

Frequent outages have spurred interest in distributed energy solutions. Micro-grids and rooftop solar installations are gaining traction in remote regions such as Amazonas and Orinoco. These initiatives provide resilience for communities facing daily blackouts and limited grid access.

Economic and Policy Challenges

Hyperinflation projected at 180% in 2025, combined with renewed U.S. sanctions, continues to weigh on project financing. Skilled labor shortages and ageing transmission infrastructure further exacerbate reliability issues. Despite these challenges, localized demand growth in mining, refining, and petrochemicals is driving investment in captive generation.

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Venezuela Power Market Segmentation

By Power Source

• Hydropower: Dominates generation with nearly half of installed capacity, though vulnerable to drought.
• Thermal: Accounts for around 50% of installed capacity but contributes less due to fuel shortages.
• Renewables (Solar & Wind): Expected to grow at a 5.9% CAGR through 2030, led by solar projects in the Andes and wind developments in Paraguaná.

By End-User

• Utilities: Represent 67.1% of installed capacity in 2024, projected to expand at a 6.5% CAGR as state-led solar projects feed into the grid.
• Commercial & Industrial: Increasing reliance on self-generation through rooftop solar, diesel gensets, and captive gas turbines.
• Residential: Adoption of rooftop PV remains limited due to high costs, though pilot programs in Caracas and Nueva Esparta show gradual progress.

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Venezuela Power Market Players

·      CORPOELEC (Corporacion Electrica Nacional)

·      PDVSA Electricidad

·      Enel Green Power Latin America

·      Siemens Energy AG

·      General Electric Company

·      ABB Ltd

·      Schneider Electric SE

·      Vestas Wind Systems A/S

·      Andritz AG

·      Voith Hydro GmbH & Co. KG

·      Repsol SA

·      TotalEnergies SE

·      Rosneft PJSC

·      China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC)

·      State Grid Corp. of China

·      Eletronorte (Centrais Eletricas do Norte do Brasil S.A.)

·      SolarPack Corporacion Tecnologica SA

·      Isotron SAIC

·      Wärtsilä Oyj Abp

·      Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SA

Conclusion: Venezuela Power Market Outlook

Utilities will continue to dominate capacity, but industrial and commercial self-generation is expected to expand as businesses seek reliable alternatives to grid supply. The government’s renewable diversification targets, if supported by financing and regulatory clarity, could gradually reduce dependence on thermal generation and stabilize electricity supply.

Despite political and economic headwinds, the Venezuela power market remains on the radar of investors and contractors, particularly in niche areas such as micro-grids, solar EPC, and dual-fuel retrofits. The next five years will determine whether Venezuela can leverage its abundant natural resources to overcome structural deficits and deliver a more reliable energy future.

Industry Related Reports:

Venezuela Renewable Energy Industry

Venezuela Solar Energy Industry

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